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Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Eastern Oregon University — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 07:31:46 -0000

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Boise State University

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:38:22 -0000

The showdown is on the 7th and will be live online at 2:30 ET at judiciary.senate.gov .

I have attempted to get it to him. I will be updating on my fight against the BCS in my write-up on this hearing.

This hearing has much more teeth than the one in congress last month, and I might have put a fly in the BCS ointment this week.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:15:48 -0000

http://rivals.yahoo.com/nca...

It looks like there's going to be another "showdown" before the 9th of July. You should get your proposal to Orrin Hatch ASAP (if you haven't already).

Orrin Hatch has an article coming in SI and seems to have a lot of backing.

http://briefingroom.thehill...

"I believe there is value to ensuring fairness in our society whenever we can. And while life may not be fair, the moment that we stop caring that it isn't, we chip away at the American dream." -- Orrin Hatch

Amen

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:52:34 -0000

I was working on a project where I needed (to get a life) the BCS figures and discovered the list for 2005 is wrong.

Penn State was within the required amount of Texas to get in.

So we get:

2005: Penn State would play Texas for the opportunity to play USC in the national championship game.

Now, back to the paper I want to try to publish in the journal:
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:27:21 -0000

You have also inspired a second change to my proposal with this line of thinking, added last week.

I now require a team to play at least 2 teams who have finished in the top 25 of the BCS final standings in any of the last 4 year to qualify for entry as an undefeated team.

This would only eliminate Hawaii in 2007.

This should be manageable for any team, even one with 8 conference games and an instate rivalry wold have 3 games left. The BCS conferences would have this covered easily with conference games alone.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:35:40 -0000

That's more like it Ben. I like the revised version better.

You said:

"The reality that schedules will not be equal should not prohibit teams from participating in the championship structure."

It should also not catapult them over teams who have to play a superior schedule and have one or possibly two losses.

How many teams from the major conferences would say... hey, give us (for instance) Boise State's schedule and we'll go undefeated too, and gladly take on the burden of playing three rounds for a chance at the NC.

You could potentially have 25 plus teams from the major conferences that would make it undefeated with Boise St., Tulsa, or Hawaii's schedule.

To me it would be an over-compensation to allow any undefeated team to have a chance to play for the NC regardless of their strength of schedule or final ranking.

The point is to make the system fair and allow access for all... not to reward teams who have weak schedules.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:43:56 -0000

I saw that quote here yesterday.

I am saving these for the next post on this topic, which won't be until either:

1) The Senate Antitrust Committee meets on this issue (Can I joint, I don't trust the Senate either)
2) The Department of Justice picks up the anti-trust case
3) A conference official or higher promotes a new system.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:41:14 -0000

Bolshevik-Championship-Series

http://rivals.yahoo.com/nca...

Just like apple pie... I mean potatoes and vodka. What a joke.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Regan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:30:18 -0000

That's the great thing about superstition; it doesn't always have to go down the same way each time...or even make sense. :)

Going into the superstition, there is not always a ToD. It's a mindset; that 'feeling' one gets when you know you're just "in the zone" and going to come home with the gold.

If anything, BSU 06 and UTAH 08 proved that they deserved shots at the NC because they could have been Teams of Destiny.

TBH, I was a fervent BCS supporter until undefeated teams routinely began to be snubbed by the BCS and were not given the chances to be the Teams of Destiny they may have been.

Could UTAH have gone all the way last year? There are several answers to that question, but the worst possible one is: "who cares, we have two good 1-Loss teams with lots of hype; let's give Utah a consolation prize and be done with it."

...and if you're pulling out The Book, I'm a Job fan; although it's never wise to screw with Proverbs. Point taken. :)

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 15:50:59 -0000

Let's not forget that Boise State and South Florida are two of those newcomer. Florida Atlantic and Troy have had some success as well.

Now lets take the top 12 MWC/WAC/C-USA west teams:

Boise State, TCU, BYU, Utah, Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno State, Tulsa, Air Force, Houston, New Mexico, Rice

You now have a conference of top contenders, vying for bowl eligibility every year.

This is what the MWC tried to do in 1997 when they went their own way. IMO they made a mistake by inviting SDSU over Fresno State, apparently favoring TV market size.

The problem is that these teams would then all play each other and some would start losing more games. This would then push them down to where the top teams left out in the remnant conferences would excel past them, as happened with the bottom of the MWC.

If major conference realignment (with most conferences going to 12 teams) ever happens, the Sun Belt and remnants of the WAC should return to 1-AA.

Their is room for 108 FBS teams, and maybe 4 independents (Notre Dame, Army, Navy, Hawaii).

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 19:02:46 -0000

Letting the committee be a life long appointment by previous champions should suffice to keep the system properly biased. I stand by my original formulation.

[wow, we are getting deep into the sarcasm here]

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 02:12:18 -0000

As long as the selection committee is required to choose a team who:

1) Has an average attendance of over 50,000 (we all know no team could seriously deserve a National Championship if this isn't the case).

2) Has at least 1,000,000 viewers in their respective market (again, no team without this many viewers could possibly be good enough to deserve a NC)

3) Has been voted the most popular by college football fans in online/text message polls (I mean come on, who in their right mind wants a NC who's not a fan favorite? We are talking about a popularity contest after all aren't we?)

4) Has recieved a vote by their own coach to be the # 1 team in the nation within the coaches poll (we -the public- would never no who voted for which team but the people in the committee would... to ensure due bias in the selection process)

5) Has already won a NC in the past (do we really need to complicate things by including all FBS teams... of course not)

These are the requirements needed to preserve a true NC race that includes only the most deserving tradition laden teams. New committee members must agree to abide by these rules before getting their right to vote.

No more than 2 teams can ever be considered for the NC. We all know that in the history of CF no more than 2 teams have ever deserved a chance anyway.

If Notry Dame finishes their season in the top 25 they are automatically in the NC game. They are a fan favorite afterall so you can always count on big ratings if you set it up this way. It would only be fair to set it up this way.

Records are great, and games are fun to watch... but we all know a popular team must ultimately be crowned NC in college football. So regardless of final records we must alway keep in mind the teams that everyone loves. That's just the way it is, right? (shoulder shrug and cheesy smile included)

On a side note... the mid majors must continue to recieve no more than 10% of the post season generated revenue thus ensuring the big 6 recieve at least 90%. This is only fair and has obviously been working well for the NC caliber teams we're trying to keep on top so why on earth would we change it?

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 00:28:14 -0000

You called Boise State "small time, small market." I guess I inserted TV on my own ...

I also conveniently left off:
BSU: 568,997 Boise

Despite having 1/5 the target population I am sure Boise State has better viewers than SDSU. This is reflected in them having double the average attendance.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 00:23:12 -0000

How about we just use a selection committee.

As an award for winning you get to select a new member for the committee.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 19:30:14 -0000

I vote we lobby to change the BCS formula to only include:

1) Stadium Attendance
2) TV Ratings
3) Popularity Contest Ratings (performed by ESPN & Fox in the form of online & text message polls)
4) Team Apparel Sold (between August 28 and January 9)
5) The Coaches Poll (hidden to the public... of course)

This would give us the beauty queen we've all been looking for... the undisputed FBS champion of the universe!!!!!!

(I think I just got dumber writing that)

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Kevin @ Fanblogs — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 17:39:27 -0000

The sad reality is that the NCAA did little to control D-IA growth in the 1990s that - unfortunately - diluted the level of play in the mid-major conferences. I don't think we would be having this discussion if more forethought had been exercised a decade ago.

It's presumptuous on my part, but I suspect that Ben agrees. A single, eight team MWC/WAC combo conference would have likely achieved BCS status.

IMO, a 75-80 team DI-A would be much more level playing field. The balance of the 40+ "tweener" teams would likely be better served in DI-AA.

(I may expand on these thoughts in a future post... post-hiatus, of course.)

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Kevin @ Fanblogs — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 17:31:46 -0000

I didn't realize I had mentioned tv market size, but you're reference essentially highlights the difference between "potential" and "kinetic", if I can borrow a very obscure physics reference.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:25:19 -0000

Who can argue with Michigan vs. Tennessee every year for the title?

Maybe Penn State or Ohio State...

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:10:00 -0000

"More attendance means more fans. More fans mean better marketability. Better marketability means more $$$ for everyone to split."

Right, but all of that put together doesn't necessarily = a better football team.

Isn't that what a playoff/championship system should shoot for? To crown the best team in the nation.

Not the most popular team.
Not the team with the best marketability.
Not the the team that has most fans or highest average attendance.

The best team.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Zac — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:41:47 -0000

Regrettably, Kevin, that's what it comes down to: Markets & Money. While it's true that almost everyone loves a "David Vs. Goliath" story, that this would sell big and make for great press, it's also true that getting David in the arena against Goliath is comparable with getting the Arabs & Israelis to sit down at the same table and work out a viable peace agreement.

Furthermore, I disagree with Hawaii in 2007. While I've never been a strong proponent of strength-of-schedule, I do agree it's owed some credence, and in Hawaii's case, in 2007 they were clearly the exception, not the rule. Comparing the 2007 Hawaii team with the 2006 Boise St team, would be similar to comparing an undefeated Div-2 squad with the 2004 Auburn team. They're not in the same league.

Consider the following:

Aggregate Opponent's Record
Boise St - 2006: 72-79; including win over OK, 83-82
Hawaii - 2007: 54-88; including loss to GA, 65-90

Regular Season Bowl-Eligible Teams Faced
Boise St - 2006: 6 (5-1 bowl record)
Hawaii - 2007: 3 (1-2 bowl record)

Number Div 1-AA Teams Faced
Boise St - 2006: 1 - Sacramento St (4-7)
Hawaii -2007: 2 - N CO (1-11), Charleston S (5-6)

Common Key Non-Conference Opponents
2006: OR St (10-4) - Boise St, L 14-42; Hawaii, W 35-32
2007: WA (4-9) - Boise St, W 24-10; Hawaii, L 35-28

Number of Regular Season "Close" Wins (< 10 Pts)
Boise St -2006: 3 (Hawaii 41-34, San Jose St 23-20, WY 17-10)
Hawaii - 2007: 5 (Fresno St 37-30, LA Tech 45-44, NV 28-26, San Jose St 42-35, WA 35-28)

Misc. Tid-Bits
In 2006 Boise St averaged 37+ pts/gm before dropping 43 on OK in the Fiesta Bowl. In 2007 Hawaii averaged 45+ pts/game before being held to only 10 by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

The 2006, 11-3, Hawaii team was better than the 2007, 12-1 team. They lost at AL (6-7) 27-25, at Boise St (13-0) 41-34, at home to OR St (10-4) 35-32, and beat AS St (7-6) 41-24 in the Honolulu Bowl. Even Colt Brennan had a better year against a tougher schedule in 2006 (broke the all-time record for TD passes - 58), than he did in 2007 against a much weaker schedule.

Zac's Take: The 2007 Hawaii team, though in the same conference, wasn't in the same league as the 2006 Boise St team, and therefore should not have been eligible for BCS consideration.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:19:45 -0000

More attendance means more fans. More fans mean better marketability. Better marketability means more $$$ for everyone to split.

This is why my system keeps the automatic qualification for the BCS bowls, it just removes most of the BCS bowls from the championship structure.

By tying the BCS bowls and championship systems together one can have a championship that is based on the skill each year and have room to involve a number of historic and popular teams on the side.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Jason — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:03:16 -0000

Thanks! That's a lot easier to read.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

ksuwild — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:43:04 -0000

What does a teams attendance have to do with how good of a football program it has? aka in 2006 was OU better than Boise St. because they had a higher average attendance that year?

Obviously not.

Attendance has more to do with university location, city population and overall tradition than it does performance on the field. If the National Championship race was about who has the best university location, or the most tradition/attendance then we could start the process to crown the national champion before the season even starts.

The NC race should be about who has the best football team in the FBS that year... not about who has the most tradition, highest attendance, or highest market share.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Ben Prather — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:57:24 -0000

First, his main point is not that they should have an equal footing but that they should have some kind of footing.

Bob Kusta is also on record as stating he is very interested in joining the MWC. Adding BYU, TCU and Utah to their schedule would go along way to bringing up that schedule strength. The second best WAC team, Hawaii, does not compare with any of those schools.

The rest of the conferences are fairly equal.

I agree that stadium size is valuable. This is why I feel strongly Utah needs to expand their south end zone.

I am going to have to disagree on TV market size.

SEC
Georgia: 4,794,930 Atlanta
Vanderbilt: 1,946,109 Nashville
Alabama: 1,634,637 Birmingham
Ole Miss: 1,599,930 Memphis
Tennessee: 1,159,417 Knoxville
LSU: 1,026,325 Baton Rouge
USC: 903,918 Columbus
Kentucky: 829,367 Lexington
Arkansas: 757,265 Fort Smith
Mississippi St: 723,303 Tupalo
Florida: 710,106 Gainesville
Auburn: 613,062 Montgomery
Total: 16,698,369

MWC
TCU: 5,470,021 Dallas-Ft.Worth
CSU: 3,062,717 Denver
SDSU: 2,810,630 San Diego
Utah: 1,932,774 Salt Lake City
BYU: 1,932,774 Salt Lake City
UNLV: 1,415,932 Las Vegas
New Mexico: 1,164,173 Albuquerque
Air Force: 830,205 Colorado Springs
Wyoming: 122,699 Rural Wyoming
Total TV Market: 18,741,925

Based only on the primary market each university is in the MWC has 2 million more viewers than the SEC. Vanderbilt is the second most viewed school in the SEC and Florida is second to last, just ahead of Auburn. Clearly this is flawed.

Re: Bob Kustra, President, Boise State University vs. the BCS

Kevin @ Fanblogs — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 09:37:13 -0000

MOST RESPECTFULLY... Bob Kustra most certainly does not say it all.

He fails to mention that his school will be playing the 117th ranked schedule this year. He omits the fact that Boise State's attendance averages 5,000+ less than the SEC spring scrimmages.

I'm sorry, Bob, but the reason that you aren't treated as an "equal" is you're small time, small market. If you want "equal" treatment, get your school up to "equal" level.