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*Sits in computer chair drooling*
BCS Automatic Qualifiers:
Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Cincinnati, Penn State, USC(or Oregon State if UCLA beats USC this weekend), Utah and the winner of Boston College vs Virginia Tech.
That is 8 teams, with 10 BCS spots, leaving room for 2 at large teams. The at large pool would be (in order of likelihood of selection):
Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, USC(if they lose to UCLA), TCU and Ball State(if they win).
Alabama would be in and Boise State's stakes go way up.
Utah would get 4.5 million, half of the MWC's 9 million.
Boise State would get 2.25 million, half of the WAC's 4.5 million.
WAC rules stipulate that a team must give 1 years notice and forfeit all shared revenue (including Bowl money) if they leave the conference. For Boise State's 2.25 million, the WAC might allow Boise State to leave early.
If this goes down (and I call dibs on a pre-BCS selection thread on the issue to be started tomorrow night if Oklahoma and Florida win) Florida would go to the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl would get the first TWO selections.
BCS GURU has them taking Utah and Boise State. This leaves the Sugar Bowl with a choice between Cincinnati, Alabama or Ohio State. This would leave Cincinnati or Alabama (if the Sugar Bowl take Cincinnati) for the Orange Bowl.
I think the Fiesta Bowl would take Alabama and Utah. The Sugar Bowl would then take Boise State, to negotiate with, and the Orange Bowl would get Cincinnati.
After the bowls make their selections the TV networks have a clause allowing them to rearrange the teams, in cooperation with the bowl, to make games that are more compelling nationally. What story line would be better than Utah faces their old coach? Undefeated Outsider vs AP #1? What if Utah manages to win, would that be enough to move them to #1 in the AP poll? Could we have a non BCS national champion?
Also Boise State returning to the Fiesta Bowl and an unprecedented two BCS outsiders in BCS bowls, with Ohio State left out, give the Fiesta Bowl meaningful story lines as well. The Fiesta Bowl would be more amiable to losing Utah if it maintained Boise State, as the two are nearly identical from a dollars and sense perspective.
So we have a chain of events that:
A) Excludes AP #1 and SEC Champion Florida from the NCG, and
B) Pits undefeated Utah vs Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
The AP rankings before the bowls would likely be:
1) Florida
2) Oklahoma
3) Texas
4) USC
5) Utah
With a Utah and Texas win they end up like:
1) Texas
2) Utah
3) USC
Unless Utah dominates Florida and Texas and Oklahoma play to the wire. Oklahoma and Texas are nearly identical for this discussion, but it is slightly better for Utah if the #3 team wins.
One possible caveat, in Utah's favor if they win a close one, is that pollsters may decide to throw the BCS a curve ball. Two BCS Bowl wins in 5 years, and no chance at the BCS championship, might be enough to give them a shot at the AP championship.
The Sugar Bowl would take Boise State to get the Fiesta Bowl on board then the TV's try to swap Utah to the Sugar Bowl to play Florida.
BCS GURU quotes Fiesta Bowl directors interest in a Boise State Utah game. I simply observe that the Fiesta Bowl likes both Boise State and Utah.
I realize it's not fair. Honestly I think Utah getting a AP Championship has more plausability and am not sure why people think Boise would be a draw. Yes thier fans will come, and sure the BCS already sold TV rights for the next decade or so but to shaft Fox with a Boise State bowl that just won't have much appeal... I watch all the bowls that I can but how many people are like me? I watched C-USA football this year! I watched 2 Ap State games. I'm crazy and I would still watch Boise but with something like 18 % of the TVs in SEC country and 65% in Big 10, SEC, ACC country... I think it would be a huge mistake to take Boise. I can't see the BCS making such a mistake.
In a Texas Oklahoma NCG scenario, they would have the choice of any two of (in order of preference): Alabama, Utah, Boise State, Ohio State
Fox would want to move Utah to the Sugar bowl to play Florida.
The Fiesta Bowl, and only the Fiesta Bowl, would rather have Boise State than Ohio State. The Fiesta Bowl, however, has a large say in the matter.
Utah is WAY to far behind in the AP to jump the winner of an Oklahoma-Texas game, even with a win over Florida.
If Utah beats SEC Champion Florida in the Sugar Bowl the NC will not be split without a major coup by the AP voters.