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First, let me preface this by saying that I in no way, shape, or form believe that Clemson will win the National Championship in football this next season.
Now, with that said, I certainly don't believe that Pitt and Cal have as good a chance to do it as we do. I definitely do not believe that Notre Dame and Miami have that much better of a chance to do it than we do. If anything, it's the same. I'm sorry, I just don't see how the likelihood of going from the Emerald or Hawai'i bowl to the National Championship is better than going from the Gator to the Nat'l Championship.
I guess I just need to go ahead and figure out a way to win some money off of that fallacy.
For example: They've got Iowa with the same odds at WVU to win the NC. I don't think Iowa's at all "bad", but I think WVU's better. See; just another opinion, just another "crack".
Geaux gators!!!!!!!!!!
Meaning one Mr. Tim Tebow...
The defense is getting taken care of, and if we could've taken care of the ball through the air last year, we'd have been fine on offense as well.
People forget that we while we gave up a lot of points to Georgia at home last year, we spotted them bookending pick 6's via our QB on top of the bad performance on D.
But, the X-Factor this year isn't defense, either. I think Chavis will have this defense playing phenomenally. He's already said that it's like having a secondary "full of Eric Berry's" in terms of the talent on the field and all through the depth chart. We just need the players to buy into the scheme, and forget the complications. Just go make plays, y'know?
Ball security from the QB position, & interior line blocking will make or break us.
Last year, we could run on most everyone, but the defense made us lean on the passing game because we found ourselves down early in most cases. Which caused cracks & fissures in Lee's game.
If we have a better game manager in Jordan Jefferson, we'll improve drastically. He can already chuck it just as good-or even better-than Lee can, and he proved in his 3rd or 4th collegiate pass that he could look off receivers (Jarrett Lee was the worst young QB I've seen at that aspect of the QB position that I've ever seen. That's no hyperbole, either).
He also can run a little bit, but Shep's going to change the game for us there.
Crowton & Miles are putting in a hybrid Spread right now and starting it out in the Spring. It'll be MUCH more like the 2007 offense than last year's.
Look for Jordan Jefferson to imitate Dennis Dixon, and look for Russell Shepard to fight Andre DeBose for SEC Freshman Of the Year on offense. Shep's playing QB the entire Spring to grasp the offense. He'll have a set amount of plays.
Imagine a spread offense where you have a kid in Jefferson who can chuck it or run the option or a keepr, who has a Charles Scott or Keiland Williams lined up next to him on one side, and then Russell Shepard lined up on other.
Direct Snaps to Shepard in the shotgun, sending one or both backs out of the backfield and into motion or on circle routes, double passes on bubble screens, QB draws, option plays...That's just what you have to defend for in the backfield.
Out wide, the receivers are quite simply going to be BEASTS...
I'm going to just shut up, though...Enough time for that to come out as we go along through the Spring & Fall...
the west is gonna be Alabama/LSU again.
my prediction is that LSU beats Alabama heads-up but loses the west overall.
why?
Alabama has an EASY schedule next season.
no florida. no georgia.
lsu, tennessee, and arkansas are all at home.
in fact, the only game i see us losing that makes sense is to LSU, and maybe to Auburn and Ole Miss on the road if things really go down. and maybe to VT?
somewhere in the 8-4 to 12-0 range.
Auburn, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will all be legitimate threats in the west this season.
Alabama will possibly have the best defense in the SEC this season. the defense is not in question.
the offense is what will change dramatically from last season.
Greg McElroy will almost certainly be the starter, but I've been hearing Star Jackson actually has a legitimate shot as well.
We'll have better WRs to help out the new QB.
We'll have HBs that are just as good or better than last season.
it all comes down to the O-Line for us.
we lost 3 starters from last years line, and i think everyone saw what happened when we lost just one.
thankfully, we recruited some help.
James Carpenter, the JUCO guy, is expected to come in and start right away. also, DJ Fluker will almost certainly have a starting spot on the line possibly at RT.
We'll see how it goes. we still lack some serious depth in the trenches.
i don't think we'll be as good as last year's team was, but i don't really see a threatening schedule.
we might lose to VT to start the year, but i don't see that happening.
we might lose to LSU at home, which is very possible.
we might lose to Auburn in Auburn, possible. but not likely.
we might lose to Ole Miss in Oxford. again. possible, but not likely.
but, if we make it to Atlanta again, i predict the same outcome. If we make it to the BCS again, i predict the same outcome. unless we play the Bearcats...
I'll also go ahead and predict that USC will be in the NC game.
Oklahoma, Texas, or OSU will probably be the challenger.
im pretty sure those four teams have been in it for the past decade now.
UPDATE: after some research. one of those four teams has been in it 8 out of the last 9 times. including the last 7 straight. wow.
Hookem
www.texasfootball.com
There has been alot of great QB's coming out of Texas, like that kid that plays for Utah-ouch!
Texas Tech,UGa,Missu,KU all had success with Texas QB's
Prognosticators have a hard time picking the Rebels over LSU, Alabama and even a down-trodden Auburn. The west is wide open this year though, IMO...
Great link--thanks for sharing (I marked it in my favs).
Oddly, my biggest concern on UF's schedule is that Miss St game @ Starkville. Historically we don't fare very well out there.
AU seems to have a pretty tough road schedule--At Tenn, Ark'y, LSU and UGA...
(I may be giving Ark'y more credit than they deserve at this point, but I figure Petrino's 2nd year should yield better results than last year).
GO GATORS!!
I'm quite certain that was the consensus opinion last year - at least among Gator fans. And then Ole Miss came into Gainesville. I will guarantee you that Florida will not beat Ole Miss in 2009.
By the way, it wasn't just stuffing Tebow on the 4th down -- it was scoring first, and making them rethink that maybe we believe we can win.
Oh and by the way, it wasn't just all those things -- it was a Snead to Hodge touchdown pass in the end that took the wind outta their sails.
So I guess "whipped" isn't completely wrong. ;-) And I said all of that for the people who still think it was "mere luck."
And Gator fans are foaming at the mouth for revenge for that one... and the next matchup will be in a few years for sure, but beware... it'll be in Oxford.
I believe mid-season of this upcoming season, there won't be as much talk of "Snead, the 2nd best QB in the SEC next to Tebow.."
Unfortunately, we're not. That's why we constantly stumble against the Mississippi teams. By the time we make it back to Oxford, we'll probably be ripe for another blind stumble. That's not intended as a knock on Ole Miss, or even Miss St; it's just the way it is. UF ALWAYS looks right past the MS. teams, and winds up paying for it.
Then again, the loss to Miss St. sealed Zook's fate; and last year's loss to Ole Miss served as a rallying point and a "wake up" call--so maybe "paying for it" ain't necessarily a bad thing.
GO GATORS!!
I didn't have to go as far back as I thought
LSU in 2003 wasnt in the ap top 25 at the end of 2002
Ohio state in 2002 wasn't in top 25 in 2001
It would take a long time to go through them all but I suppose a long shot Could possible win next year.
http://www.appollarchive.com/football/ap/season...
LSU 2003
Ohio State 2002
Oklahoma 2000
BYU 1984
Miami 1983
Clemson 1981
Georgia 1980
Almost a quarter of the time !
Consider some comparisons: In 2001, WVU lost to Maryland (10-2), Miami (12-0), ND (5-6), Syracuse (10-3), & Temple (4-7); they beat Kent (6-5), Ohio (1-10), & Rutgers (2-9). Similarly, in 2008 Michigan lost to ND (7-6), then #3 Penn St (11-2), then #10 OSU (10-2), & Utah (13-0). Yes, there was that embarrassing loss to Toledo (3-9). The difference lays in Michigan's wins: Miami of Ohio (2-10), Minnesota (7-6), & then #9 Wisconsin (7-6). WVU beat only one team with a winning record and only one in conference. MI beat two conference foes, both with winning records. It's entirely possible that MI could wind up as high as 2nd place in the Big Ten this year. My guess would be 3rd or 4th, depending upon wins in and out of conference. But, as TC has already said, it's way too early to make predictions.
click here
I'm sorry was my tone in the previous post not sarcastic enough?
I WAS JOKING!!!!!!!!!
Although I think you're misinterpreting these odds for RANKINGS. This isn't about being a "top5" team, it's about having a top five chance to win the championship. This simply means Ohio St. doesn't have a lot of obstacles in their way. If they win the Big10, even with one loss, they still have a half way decent chance to make it to the championship game. And from there who knows.........
Think about it, they basically should only have USC and Penn St. in their path. I think if they have a 50/50 chance of beating both those teams. It looks like Texas has better than a coin flips chance of winning it all.......
And to get into the championship, they would have to be one of those top teams, which I don't think they're capable of doing.
Ohio State has a chance to beat USC at the Horseshoe this coming year. Although, I don't think that it is gonna happen, a win there would certainly vault them up the charts. And, if they can get by Southern Cal, then there wouldn't be much doubt that they might take everybody in the Big Ten (or is it eleven?). Nevertheless, based on the potential of that game (as in prior Ohio State/Texas matchups), the winner of the game gets a major push up the charts early in the campaign. With just one loss in the Big Ten for instance, and Ohio State would certainly be Top Five, and headed for a BCS bowl game with a win over Southern Cal.
Also, all of these great programs are just loaded up with talent. It really doesn't matter that they are losing 20 guys. They'll just plug 20 more in who may be even better. We always like to assume that the people who left were better than the underclassmen. That is not always the case. With a little bit of playing time, most of the great underclassmen, come around very fast. Texas will also replace every great player that they just graduated.
I suppose I am - if your calculations are correct. I wasn't aware that there might be a problem with intellectual capacity (did I spell that right) down thar in Texas. Tomcat is a pretty smart guy (other than all the "road kill" that he's gobblin' down), and G.W. Bush sure got this country straightened around, so there might be some form of higher intelligence still left in Texas. As for the football squad - I'm not sure. I do know that Norm Chow did not want to draft Vince Young though. Think there is anything to that?
That thread is 2.5 years old. I'm sure they've moved up to at least #200 by now...
Keep hope alive!
No other At Large conference team listed?
TCU and BYU are just as good.
What are the odds that a one loss MWC team wins a BCS bowl? Call it a hunch...
BP, in my opinion the odds are as good as any I've seen this far.