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I bet he can hardly wait...
I think we may very well be witnessing a long term power shift in the Big 10--from Michigan to Minnesota.
The Gophers are moving to an outdoor stadium; they should be able to pick things up in terms of recruiting-this series should help in that regard quite a bit. Moreover, Minneapolis is a youthful metro-area on the rise, enjoying healthy population growth--it's on the cutting edge technologically--home to Target, Best Buy, General Foods, 3M (post-it notes, sctoch tape...), and a number of other fortune 500 co's.
Detroit (and by extension, Michigan), by contrast, is the epitome of what gives rise to the pharse "rust belt." In addition to the long suffering auto industry, the population is bleeding out; crime is out of control; polution is prevalent; and you have an influx of islamic extremists congeregating in deerborn (near Detroit). Michigan is becoming a wasteland where no one wants to live (they're all down here, fast to tell you how great Michigan is, though rather vague about explaining why they left. No worries, fella's--we figured it out all on our lonesome....).
IMO, these two programs (USC-UMn) are trending in opposite directions--though 2010 is clearly too early to expect Minnesota to pull off an upset (USC has about as much ground to give, as Minnesota has to gain, before they're level--and that's obviously a BOATLOAD)--but then we've had greater shocks, just in the last two years.....
GO GATORS!!
Yes, Minnesota's 55-0 beatdown at the hands of Iowa, and the butt kicking they took to Kansas to close out the year - certainly show a program on the rise.
Likewise, USC's 12-1 season and finishing # 2 or # 3, while demolishing Penn State in the Rose Bowl - clearly show a program in decline.
Dude, you need to give up on that Gator juice. One of these days the Gators are gonna have to play the Trojans - and then we'll see how much we're in decline.
Trends like the rise of the 3x Florida powerhouse schools in the 1980's-1990's.
The analysis of the decline of the 'structural' power base in the state Michigan and the increasing one in the state of Minnesota is an interesting one; let no one forget that MINN used to be a powerhouse in CFB too.
It may take a decade or so, but I see what TG's saying about MINN and MICH.
Although I doubt SCAL is in decline in any way right now, though...
The decades long trend is that the Big 10 conference is in decline. Jobs are being lost all over the Midwest region of the United States. It's been going on for a long time. Those people are all moving to the West Coast and the South. I don't know about where you all live at - but there has been an enormous population explosion in California for the last ten years or so. And, it's just not all immigrants from Mexico. The whole West Coast is being saturated with displaced people from everywhere on the planet. This does not bode well for TG's theory. My prediction might be that the West Coast starts to dominate College football - rather than the State of Minnesota becoming some kinda force. The recruiting base in the West is growing.
I wasn't saying that it was just a matter of time before Gophers=Torjans--just that SoCal is trending downwards, and Minnesota is trending upwards--with no comment as to how soon or how far one will fall, or the other will rise, nor any guarantee that the trends will continue.
As for Michigan--I stand by that analysis, and further point out that it's not necessarily ALL of the Midwest. Minneapolis, Chicagoland (and other areas around Illinois), Indianapolis, and a few other areas, continue to hold their own, and grow at decent clip, while some metro areas like Cleveland, Cincy, Milwakee, Detroit--and many vast areas in the outlands (e.g., Youngstown, the Mesabi Iron range, western PA* (sans Pittsburgh)...), --are "rust belt" areas, bleeding out.
* yeah, I know, western pa isn't technically in the midwest, but if you're familiar with the area, I think you'd be hard pressed to distinguish it from the midwest.
As for UF v. SoCal--the very reason I want this matchup so badly--(or SEC champ, if not UF)--is precisely because I recognize that SoCal cannot maintain the level of dominance it has for so long. We already missed Miami v. So Cal--the 2 powers of the early '00s--because Miami was trending down, as USC was trending up. Now USC (IMO) is starting to trend down, while UF is peaking.
...and before you blow another gasket, I recognize the same applies for UF--particularly with Tennessee and Alabama making the moves they're making recently. All teams trend up, or down, and no matter how great a system (e.g. Notre Dame) or coach (Bowden/Paterno) you have, the nature of the game, the rules, the general terrain are such, that dominance cannot be maintained for more very long periods of time anymore.
As for your prediction to Regan--that the West Coast will start to dominate CFB--
That would depend on the southeastern quadrant of the US somehow losing interest in its deepest passion. Fact is, Cali has had a population equal to about 5-6 southern states including Florida, and can still only muster 1.5 CFB powerhouses.
To illustrate: if we were to shut down UGA, Tenn, Alabama and AU, LSU, Arky', South Carolina--then shut down Miami and FSU--and let UF recruit all this area with only USF, Vandy, Clemson, GaTech, and whatever else's left over to worry about--we'd have the same advantage USC has out west.
But then we'd be playing in the equivalent of the Rose Bowl every year...who'd want that?
That'd be like Groundhog Day, on national CFB level....
GO GATORS!!
As far as population shift patterns go, you're spot on, which is why it is such an interesting point.
I didn't suggest that was your opinion (i.e.--that the west coast would dominate); I referenced TT's comment TO you, as such.
As for the population patters/demographics--I've always found that stuff facinating, but truth be told, what transpires on gridiron in CFB has almost a complete disconnect with demographics.
For e.g.-why can't NYC or Chicago produce a big time CFB program?
How can shcools like OU, Nebraska, and Notre Dame consistently remain competitive?
Why is Cali only good for 1 maybe 1.5 powerhouses?
...what's more, my comments re. Minneapolis/St. Pual vs. Detroit, are about trends that have been going on for decades, yet little has changed.
So basically I'm just kinda' floating a balloon here--MAYBE, we're seeing a powershift....
....then again, maybe not.
Afterall, the more things change...
GO GATORS!!
Well, I can understand what you are saying, but it just is not true. We just took Devan Kennard out of Arizona. We've takin' the last three top players out of Arizona. We're going after one other DT this year. We'll get him too. I think you misunderstand some things about recruiting out here.
There are many great players in California - and we cannot get them all. Some don't want to risk not playing here. Some of their parents went to UCLA or Cal or whatever. There are many reasons that a kid won't come to Southern Cal. But, we have always recruited great talent even in the down years. That is never going to end.
If UCLA is getting players, they are taking most of them from other schools, such as Oregon and California. UCLA has always had good talent. They just have not been able to recruit a top QB in many years - because we have gotten them all. Otherwise, they would have always been a National contender. They'll come up over there. I have no doubt. But, it's not gonna be at our expense. Same thing over at Arizona. Mike Stoops is doing a good job. But, he cannot recruit against Southern Cal. He'll never beat USC. Nobody out here will.
No, you got some wishful thinking going on. As long as Pete Carroll is here, or any other great football coach, Southern Cal will always be right at the top of recruiting year in and year out.
I got some wishful thinking???
I said I expected UF to go through the same cycle as USC and UM (and FSU, Notre Dame....).
I think you might be the one with the wishfull thinking, if you think PC is above cycles.
IMO, No person, coach or program is immune....
GO GATORS!!
I think that when coaches get "too old", that the cycle that you are referring to, can happen and will. Joe Paterno does not bring in the guys he used to. Neither does Bowden. Spurrier isn't the great recruiter that he once was also. Yes, at some point, the recruiting edge does where off. Also, once a program is saturated with talent, alot of kids won't even want to try and make the team. But, that does not mean, that the talent isn't there. To lose kids to having too much talent means that you have alot of it. Of course, Florida and USC are going through some of that right now. We do lose kids who don't want to compete. But, we'd really rather have the ones who do. So, what have we really lost, when we lose a guy who wants a job handed to him? Nope, top programs like USC and Florida (to name just a couple), are not for everybody. Usually, only the top of the line talent, is willing to step up to the plate at those schools. The competition is incredible and not for the faint of heart. But, if you really want to play on Sunday's, these are the kinda schools that you go to.
Then again, maybe I'm being too pessimistic....maybe Meyer coaches UF to another couple of NC's over the next 10 years!
GO GATORS!!
That would be very likely if he stays there. I'd say Pete Carroll is gonna get one pretty soon also. In fact, these two programs may just split the next ten, should these coaches stay. I'm being overly optimistic.